Graduate School of Business

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    A study of the macro economic factors affecting the value of the Zambian kwacha.
    (The University of Zambia, 2020) Mwansa, Derick C.
    This study was aimed at determining the influence of macroeconomic factors on foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and the value of the Zambian Kwacha. Macroeconomic factors include inflation rates, interest rates, Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) and Balance of Payments which constituted independent variables whilst the dependent variable in the study was the value of the Kwacha against the United States Dollar ($). Secondary data representing annual average covering the period 1993 to 2018 was extracted from various Bank of Zambia and Central Statistical Office reports for the study. The study used regression model, E.Views software version 22 to analyse the data set. The study established that, based on the error correction model, R-squared was 0.6 meaning that 36% of variations in the performance of the kwacha against the US dollar is caused by the four independent variables in the developed model. The results also showed that interest rates and Gross Domestic Product growth rate were negatively related to the performance of the kwacha, while inflation and Balance of Payment rates were positively related to the value of the kwacha at 0.05% level of significance. However, the response of the kwacha with respect to all independent variables was not very responsive as all the variables were inelastic. In addition, the F.Test based on the ANOVA showed that there was no significance between the dependent variable and independent variables. The study, therefore, recommends that both contractionary monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy can greatly improve the performance of the kwacha against the US dollar in times of economic recession.
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    A study of the macro economic factors affecting the value of the Zambian Kwacha.
    (The University of Zambia, 2020) Mwansa, Derick C.
    This study was aimed at determining the influence of macroeconomic factors on foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and the value of the Zambian Kwacha. Macroeconomic factors include inflation rates, interest rates, Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) and Balance of Payments which constituted independent variables whilst the dependent variable in the study was the value of the Kwacha against the United States Dollar ($). Secondary data representing annual average covering the period 1993 to 2018 was extracted from various Bank of Zambia and Central Statistical Office reports for the study. The study used regression model, E.Views software version 22 to analyse the data set. The study established that, based on the error correction model, R-squared was 0.6 meaning that 36% of variations in the performance of the kwacha against the US dollar is caused by the four independent variables in the developed model. The results also showed that interest rates and Gross Domestic Product growth rate were negatively related to the performance of the kwacha, while inflation and Balance of Payment rates were positively related to the value of the kwacha at 0.05% level of significance. However, the response of the kwacha with respect to all independent variables was not very responsive as all the variables were inelastic. In addition, the F.Test based on the ANOVA showed that there was no significance between the dependent variable and independent variables. The study, therefore, recommends that both contractionary monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy can greatly improve the performance of the kwacha against the US dollar in times of economic recession.
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    Factors affecting tax administration in the informal sector: a case study of Lusaka district.
    (The University of Zambia, 2023) Mtonga, Violet
    The Study is an evaluation of Factors Affecting Tax Evasion in the Informal Sector: A case Study of Lusaka. The study was guided by the following objectives, To establish factors that lead to non-compliance on tax remittance in informal sector. To identify the challenges that affect revenue mobilization by Zambia Revenue Authority from the informal sector and to determine how ZRA can improve upon tax collection in the informal sector by incorporating good tax Administration principles,procedures and practices in Zambia. The study adopted a mixed method design that was used in this study was a convergent parallel mixed-methods design. An approach to inquiry that embeds both qualitative and quantitative methods concurrently, prioritizing both methods almost equally throughout the process of data collection. A total of sixty – eight (68) respondents were interviewed and with closed and open-ended questions. A total of three (3) ZRA key informants were interviewed with open ended questions. The research used mixed method research design in order to come up with the findings. The research also used both secondary and primary data. The empirical result obtained from the study showed that tax evasion in the informal sector is mainly influenced by low incomes, illiteracy, complicated tax processes and the tax rate been too high. The study also established that the non-permanent place of work of informal sector participants, cash-based transactions and poor record keeping in the sector were among the many challenges that the Zambian Revenue Authority faced in taxing the informal sector. The study also found out that Tax advertisement and education, increase of ZRA pay points, Mandatory registration of informal businesses would encourage the informal sector to pay tax. Finally, study has recommends among othe that the Zambian government in conjuction with ZRA should reduce tax rates, expand tax pay points, embark on serious tax education and advertisement, employ more tax administrators and simplify the process of remitting tax in order to increase tax revenues from the informal sector.
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    The effects of the monetary policy on stock market performance in Zambia: a case study of Lusaka security exchange.
    (The University of Zambia, 2020) Kaonga, Dickson
    Stock market plays an integral role in economic development in every economy and as such performance of stock markets remains critical in every country. Equity prices are among the key stock market performance indicators that are closely monitored by economic agents and authorities because of their sensitivity to arrival of new macroeconomic information. This sensitivity can cause price volatility and eventually lead to stock market bubbles which can be damaging for the economy. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to empirically investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on stock market price returns at Lusaka Security Exchange. The study is a quantitative research which employed an ex post facto research design to investigate the subject matter by using predicator variables namely; exchange rate, lending base rate, bank lending rate and money supply (Narrow Money-M1, M2 and M3 is Broad Money) extracted from BoZ statistical reports and stock market indices (LuSE Statistical Reports) as criterion variables from 2014-2018, using monthly data. Pearson correlation as well as Multi-linear regression model was employed in this study using SPSS version 23 analysis software. Furthermore, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Shapiro-Wilk was employed to test normality of the data and also descriptive analysis (using mean and standard deviation) to understand the characteristic of the data. The results showed that money supply has a positive effect on stock market price returns and the effect is statistically significant with P-value less than .05 ( M1, P=.028,M2,P=.002 and M3, P=.001) . On the other hand variations in Interest rate induced by Monetary Policy has a statistically significant inverse effect on stock market indices with p value less than .05 (Lending base rate, P=.002 and Bank lending rate, P=.001). Similarly, exchange rate exhibits an inverse effect on stock market price returns (P=.001) Therefore, the study concludes that independent variables as captioned above significantly affect stock market performance in Zambia and account for 82% (R Square =0.82) of the changes in stock market indices. It is therefore recommended that Monetary Authority should demonstrate innovations through adjustment of monetary policy instruments to enhance stock market performance be way of attaining stability in stock prices and in exchange rate thereby enhance predictability in the market by economic market agents (Investors) when making investment decisions and also at macro level enable stock market performance to permeate the real sector.
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