Trends in Public Recurrent Expenditure in Zambia 1964-1982
Chimbwayinga, Josiah Simunza
MetadataShow full item record
Trends in public recurrent expenditures in Zambia 1964-82, This research project will examine the main determinants of the ratio and changes in the ratio of public recurrent expenditures to GNP on both the aggregate and disaggrepate functional levels. The hypothesis is that the institutional reforms, level of economic development and population factors have contributed to the increase in the ratio of public recurrent expenditures to GNP. The research project will further examine the patterns or main features of these expenditure ratios in terms of their degree of centralisation and stability. On centralisation the hypothesis postulated is that centralisation is a function of GNP per capita and the population growth rate. On stability the research project will examine the relationship between the stability of expenditure ratios and the fluctuations in the GNP per capita and the population growth rate. The hypothesis postulated is that the stability of the expenditure ratios is a function of the fluctuations in the GNP per capita, population growth rate and other economic development indicators, In order to carry out the task outlined above the study design employed will be on the level of hypothesis-testing. The inductive model building technique will be used to explore the determinants and the main features of the ratios of public recurrent expenditures. The time series multiple regression analysis will mainly be used. The dependent variables are the .ratios of public recurrent expenditures to GNP, centralisation ratio and the coefficients of variations of the public recurrent expenditures to GNP ratios. The explanatory variables are the economic development indicators,. The estimated coefficients of the explanatory variables will be tested by the regression technique and determined whether they are significant or not. / t t * • * - 2 - On the basis of the tested and significant coefficients of the explanatory variables some explanatory/predictive public recurrent expenditure and stability models for Zambia will be suggested both on the aggregate and the disaggregate functional levels.