Zambia’s energy mix by the year 2050

Abstract

In 2015 unparalleled energy crisis was experienced due to depleted energy stocks in the hydroelectric dams and reduced river flows in the Kafue and Zambezi river basin and the northern water circuit. In the past, energy profile of Zambia showed serious imbalance due to over dependence on one single source of primary energy (Hydropower). To avoid possible repeat of the energy deficit, alternative scenarios which are views of the future have been used to explore the implication of different set of assumptions to determine the degree of robustness of possible for future energy production and consumption. This study models the performance of electric energy, that would be supplied from primary energy source available within Zambia based on selected energy scenarios, for the year 2050, taking 2015 as a base year. Data regarding the characteristic of primary energy supply potentials available within the country and key drivers of final energy demand were collected. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) tool a widely used software tool for energy mix system modelling, policy analysis simulation and climate, and was applied to three alternative scenarios for the year 2050. In this study primary energy supply options for all 2050 energy mix scenarios is hydro, coal, solar, biomass (bagasse), geothermal and wind energy. The final electric energy demand increases between 6.5 to 12.5 with a concomitant primary energy supply increment of between 7 to 16 times by 2050 in all scenario. Key words; LEAP Tool, modelling, primary energy mix, scenarios, demand and supply.