“Projecting the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 control in Lusaka using a mathematical model”.
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Date
2024
Authors
Nsofwa, Mwamba
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
The University of Zambia
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic in Zambia has had significant social and economic impact on the health sector and wellbeing of the population. Hence it is vital to investigate the effect of various Interventions that were implemented to control the spread of the pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs) were introduced to help contain the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. Since then, COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and are readily available globally. Projecting the combined impact of vaccine uptake and NPIs in the control of the COVID 19 pandemic is crucial to support evidence-based policy making. The Vensim Personal Learning Edition (PLE) simulation software was used to create a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical model to show the simultaneous effects of vaccination combined with NPIs such as social distance, hand hygiene and cough etiquette which we termed as behaviour change, and also vaccination with face
masking only against COVID-19 in Lusaka. Behaviour change and face masking were simulated at different percentages compliance together with varying vaccine uptake levels of low, moderate and high. Twelve different scenarios for groups of people who practice behaviour change or combined (NPIs) with vaccination and twelve scenarios for face masking with vaccination were modelled. Results from the simulation showed a reduction in the number of both cumulative cases and deaths from the interventions put in place as compared to scenarios without intervention. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number (R0) which was initially set at 2.64 in the model and was reduced to 2.37 in the scenario set at 10% behaviour change with low vaccination rate and 2.34 in the scenario set at 10% behaviour change with high vaccination rate as well as 0.61 in the scenario set at 80% behaviour change with low vaccination rate and 0.55 in the scenario set at 80% behaviour change with high vaccination rate. In the masking with vaccination scenarios, reproduction number was reduced to 2.45 in the scenario set at 10% masking with low vaccination rate and 2.29 in the scenario set at 10% masking with high vaccination rate as well as 1.25 in the scenario set at 80% masking with low vaccination rate and 1.24 in the scenario set at
80% masking with high vaccination rate. These findings highlight the importance of continued adherence to NPIs even when the population is being vaccinated, particularly under scenarios of lower vaccination rates which are influenced by vaccine efficacy, distribution and community hesitancy.
Description
Thesis of Master’s of Science degree in One Health Analytical Epidemiology.