An Analysis of the Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Zambia(1999-2008)

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Simuchimba, Bupe
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Tourism is beneficial to the country's growth process. It is a source of government revenue,foreign exchange earnings and employment. The study looks at the demand for tourism in Zambia. It looks at the factors that determine the flow of tourists in Zambia. The overall objective of the study is to examine both the long run and short run relationships between the demand for tourism in Zambia and the factors that influence that demand. It highlights possible factors that make Zambia an attractive tourist destination. The study provides policy makers with a better understanding of factors that attract tourists to Zambia. It provides empirical verification of the determinants of tourism demand. In so doing, it offers policy recommendations that will ensure the recognition of the best strategies needed to develop and efficiently run the tourism sector in Zambia. We estimate the determinants of tourist arrivals in Zambia using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) model. The study uses annual data for the 1999-2008 period for 16 source countries. The demand factors included in the analysis are income of the source country, the cost of living, transportation cost and the number of airlines servicing Zambia. Other factors such as the ongoing visit Zambia campaign and the September 11 attack are included as dummy variables to determine their impact on tourist arrivals. The study shows that the variables measuring the cost of living,transport costs and the number of airlines servicing Zambia have an impact on the number of tourist arrivals in both the short run and the long run. However, the income of the source country variable does not influence tourist arrivals in Zambia for this study. Further, the results of the study show that of the two dummy variables, only the September 11 attack dummy variable had an impact on the flow of international tourists into Zambia. In order to increase the flow of tourist arrivals, the study recommends an improvement in infrastructure, the quality of the tourism product offered and making Zambia an affordable tourist destination.
Tourists Arrivals---Zambia